Reducing uncertainty -- Myths, fears, and expectations -- Spies collect data, analysts provide insight -- Using intelligence to anticipate and shape the future -- Estimative analysis : what it is, what it isn't, and how to read it -- A tale of two estimates -- Epilogue : lessons and challenges
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This book provides a description of the role of intelligence analysis in the making of national security decisions in the U.S. government. The author covers how analysts do their job, how they are affected by the political context, and why they pay more attention to warning about potential threats than to providing input that might increase the likelihood of positive developments