عنوان

Blindside :

0815729898

1281029637

9780815729891

9781281029638

0815729901

9780815729907

b715744

Blindside :

[Book]

how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /

Francis Fukuyama, editor.

Washington, D.C. :

Brookings Institution Press,

©2007.

1 online resource (vi, 198 pages)

"An American Interest Book."

Includes bibliographical references (pages 173-180) and index.

The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Notes -- Contributors -- Index.

0

"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.

Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002.

JSTOR

22573/ctt5zfxf1

Blindside.

0815729901

Emergency management-- United States.

International relations.

11 September 2001.

Emergency management.

International relations.

NATURE-- Natural Disasters.

Rampen.

SOCIAL SCIENCE-- Disasters & Disaster Relief.

Voorspellingen.

Voorzorg.

Wereldcrises.

United States.

7

JPS

NAT-- 023000

POL028000

SOC-- 040000

SOC040000

Fukuyama, Francis

20201208055824.0

pn

[Book]

Y